Shoigu has a noose around his neck. About the conflict between Kremlin clans. Financial-criminal-power groups of the Kremlin Clans in the Kremlin

"Politburo 2.0" - the term of political strategist Evgeny Minchenko - is an informal network structure for decision-making in the Russian elite. In fact, this is the inner circle of Russian President Vladimir Putin

Personnel changes in the Russian presidential administration should remove the emerging inter-elite conflict, as well as set the tone for a reboot of the system of “checks and balances,” experts from the communications holding Minchenko Consulting note. On Monday, November 7, political strategists presented a report “Politburo 2.0: dismantling or rebooting?” about the current distribution of forces in power.

According to researchers, a regrouping of forces has begun in the highest and middle echelons of the Russian nomenklatura. Three signs indicate this: noticeable personnel changes in the Administration, the gubernatorial corps and the Cabinet of Ministers, the intensification of the anti-corruption agenda against the backdrop of the creation of a new law enforcement structure (Rosgvardia), as well as a significant renewal of the State Duma.

At the same time, political strategists highlight factors that have intensified intra-elite competition. Among them are a reduction in the resource base, a renewal of ideology, instability in the foreign policy environment and a request to reduce external conflict. The role of the upcoming presidential elections. After them, the distribution of posts both in the government and in the management of state corporations is expected. According to experts, Vladimir Putin wants to form an election coalition on a competitive basis, so as not to become “a hostage to his environment.”

To weaken the influence of Politburo 2.0, which, according to political strategists, has fulfilled its function of dismantling the Putin-Medvedev tandem and creating a less ambitious management mechanism, the power resource was regrouped, and the strengthening Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu was balanced by the head of the Russian Guard Viktor Zolotov.

The Kremlin is currently testing various options for ideological support and personnel recruitment, experts say.

“Judging by the latest personnel decisions, Vladimir Putin’s first presidential term is taken as a reference model

with successful liberal economic reforms and the normalization of relations with the West. And given the importance for Putin high level public support, it is important to implement changes while maintaining an acceptable level of popularity of the authorities. This task may be assigned to the new State Duma speaker Vyacheslav Volodin, who participated in the formation of a new corps of professional deputies,” say the authors of the study, emphasizing that single-mandate deputies during the reforms will be able to mitigate the grievances of the population, thanks to direct communication with them, and even intercept the protest agenda.

Four groups will continue to compete for resources and influence, experts say. The first includes old oligarchy a source of personnel to increase the global competitiveness of the Russian economy. Thus, according to experts, in the government apparatus the most comfortable partner for business remains the government’s network of prime ministers Dmitry Medvedev - Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich, to which in the most significant cases the first deputy chairman of the government is connected Igor Shuvalov.

The second group is the so-called an alternative intellectual center of the “Putin appeal”. He develops his concept of previously deferred economic reforms. As part of this coalition, political scientists identified Yuri and Mikhail Kovalchukov(“Gazprombank”, FANO, CSR), ex-Minister of Economy Alexey Kudrin and the head of the Central Bank German Gref. They rely on moderate support for Russia’s participation in non-carbon scenarios for the development of global energy (therefore, the first deputy head of the AP remains an ally of the group as Rosatom’s strategist Sergei Kiriyenko).

Third force - large state corporations and companies with state participation. They promote the idea of ​​​​rebuilding corporations - national champions with the greatest parity on the part of the state, without regard to the inefficiency of past years. Leaders in this sector are heads of state corporations - Sergey Chemezov(“high-tech” dual-use and a number of related industries) and Igor Sechin(energy, pipeline and maritime transport).

A separate group is infrastructure project operators(businessmen - brothers and sons Rotenberg, Gennady Timchenko and Leonid Mikhelson), promoting the idea of ​​large projects entrusted to them as engines of development. Experts also include the mayor of Moscow among them, with a reservation. Sergei Sobyanin(he distributes the capital's budget between federal elite groups) and ambitious leaders of national republics (the president of Tatarstan Rustam Minnikhanov and the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov).

The president, in turn, as noted in the study, tests people from various strata in order to update the composition of the ruling elite.

Young technocrats who “grew up” in the current bureaucracy include the head of the Administration Anton Vaino, Minister of Industry Denis Manturov, Minister of Energy Alexander Novak, Chief of Staff of the State Duma Tatiana Voronova.

Assignment mechanisms are being tested people from families of the ruling elite, positioning themselves as effective technocrats (governor of the Moscow region Andrey Vorobiev, FSO director Evgeniy Murov, Chairman of the Board of Rossiya Bank Yuri Kovalchuk).

Putin is also testing his inner circle: in particular, an interesting experiment is the appointment as governors of a number of people from the president’s personal guard, experts write. The head of state also pays attention junior partners of Politburo 2.0 members(Sergey Kiriyenko, Leonid Mikhelson, Severstal General Director Alexey Mordashov), managers of economic sectors whose importance is increasing (sports and sports infrastructure - Vitaly Mutko, Agriculture — Alexander Tkachev).

“Vladimir Putin’s experiments with changing the regional balance, which he began back in the 2000s by attracting strong governors to the federal team (the mayor of Moscow Sergei Sobyanin, deputy prime ministers Yuri Trutnev And Alexander Khloponin).

In particular, recent appointments show an increase in the representation of people from the Volga region. It is possible that other representatives of the regional elites will be recruited to the team.

Considering Sergei Kiriyenko’s successful experience in forming a personnel reserve as a presidential representative in the Volga region, we can assume his high activity in this direction,” the report says.
Political scientists also note that the “right turn” in ideology is complicated by the low popularity of liberal ideas in society. The failure of non-system liberal parties in the elections affected (“Apple”, PARNASUS), as well as an unsuccessful attempt to restart the loyalist project "Just cause." However, experts predict the formation of an alternative pole at this location. This is indicated in Lately intensified radical protective rhetoric.

Minchenko Consulting experts expect an intensification of the struggle over the media space. According to them, this year many elite conflicts spilled over into the media. Information attacks hit particularly hard Shuvalova, Medvedev, Sechin and [Assistant to the President Vladislav] Surkov.

“It is characteristic that, with the exception of Surkov, all of the above politicians can be considered candidates for the post of prime minister after the next presidential election,” political strategists point out.

Due to the rapidly changing environment in international field, figures who have the ability to effectively conduct external communication with the West may have great potential for growth. Experts included the former Minister of Economy in this group Alexey Kudrin, Anton Vaino And Alexander Novak.

Political scientists predict the start of “early” presidential re-elections and the inevitable “distribution of positions and prizes” in the government (including the posts of prime minister and his deputies), in the management of large state corporations, as well as in private corporations with a high degree of state regulation of the relevant areas of business). The authors of the study summarize: “The soft resignations of Ivanov, Naryshkin, and Fradkov allow Putin to change his old team even before the elections, without fear of risks associated with a decrease in personal loyalty.”

Russia has entered the decisive phase of the struggle between two power groups

One by one, corruption scandals emerge in the press. First, Serdyukov’s Oboronservis, followed by the loss of funds from the APEC summit, and now, finally, they got to GLONASS and RKS, and now they throw up their hands and pretend that they just found out about the theft. It may seem that the country's leadership is trying to restore order by exposing obvious corruption schemes.

However, no matter how much one would like to believe it, it is not so. The country has begun the decisive phase of the clan struggle, and facts of corruption are used to remove one person and put in his place a person from another clan.

Who is fighting whom?

There are two large groups in Russia. First is an industrial power group, it includes former “red directors” who seized high-tech industries: aircraft manufacturing, space industry, medical industry, production of components necessary for the listed industries. This clan is interested in a rigid vertical of power and strong country, which will guarantee him high income, status and regular orders. The Russian bureaucracy, high and middle, also belongs to this group, which without a sovereign Russia will have no positions and high position in society. This clan personifies and leads.

Second clan– financial and raw materials group. These people are connected with the Yeltsin family, through financial relations they are tied to transnational financial and industrial corporations, they control raw materials and finances in Russia and are interested in ensuring that these raw materials are sold calmly and well abroad. They are also called Western liberals, which is also very arbitrary, simply because their representatives shake white ribbons in the street, demanding democracy. Their representatives are the “Nemtsovs”, “Kasparovs” and “Kasyanovs”. These people do not want a strong Russia, they see Russia as a raw material appendage of the West, and they would be calmer if their business was guarded by American foot soldiers, since a strong Russia is dangerous for them, and in a weak Russia they are kings. Therefore, they continue the line that turned Russia into western appendage, that’s why they are fighting for democracy, because under Western democracy, power in Russia will be in their hands, and not in the hands of industrial security forces.

There is a very serious, deep-seated antagonism between these clans. It is as follows. We live in northern country, 70% of whose territory is located in the permafrost zone. Our energy consumption for production is twice as high as the average in Russia, therefore, in order for industrial products to be competitive in cost compared to European products, it is necessary to either limit worker salaries or reduce the cost of raw materials on the domestic market.

Therefore, our high-tech industry is interested in cheap raw materials on the domestic market, and therefore in taking financial and raw material comrades by the trunk and forcing them to trade cheaper for “their own people.” Periodically this is done using FAS. The financial and raw materials clan, on the contrary, is interested in not being disturbed from sitting on the pipe, and best of all, that we do not have a high-tech industry in principle, i.e. to finally realize what they had been doing without sparing effort.

So now this fight has reached the most acute phase, a fight began for key positions and advantageous places. There is, as the military says, a seizure of commanding heights in the bureaucratic field. And we are seeing the first victims. Serdyukov fell. He fell because he had long since defected to the liberal-democratic group. This manifested itself in the fact that he began to purchase foreign equipment, directly attacking the high-tech sector, which is why he entered into a tough clinch with Rogozin and lost. It could have been removed softly and carefully. But the struggle entered a tough phase, and therefore the fall was tough. It would not be surprising if this story ends on time.

Naturally, after Serdyukov, they should have struck other elements. For example, for people who are "Russian space systems", working for, lobbied for the use of Western components for our systems, instead of, for example, Belarusian components, which much more reliable and modern than Western ones. Then the Ministry of Regional Development was hit, and now, probably, a dismantling is already underway.

Apparently, Ivanov will remain in place, he will just arrange his subordinates differently from now on. You must understand that even if you are the boss from one clan, this does not mean that a representative of another group cannot be appointed as your deputy, and in order to remove him, you will have to create a huge scandal, which is an unworthy thing in the system of Putin’s bureaucracy.

Of course, everyone knows where billions of rubles are going, and the FSB and the corresponding department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs are especially well aware. But there is also an answer to the question of where the billion-dollar fortunes of Vekselberg, Abramovich, Doronin and others came from. A no action. In fact, there is simply no political moment, as there was, say, with Khodorkovsky, who was pinned down at once and is still being kept in prison.

Are our other oligarchs more honest? Of course not. By the way, if at the same time they launched an attack on our oligarchs, we could really admit that there is a fight against corruption. But now we are only observing a process in which the fight against corruption is only clan fighting tool.

But even this is good! One can only be glad that at least some of the scoundrels will sit away from power.

However, it would be useful to understand What does this struggle promise for Russia itself?

So, if the industrial-power group wins, a power reminiscent of tsarism is established. Without a king, of course, but with an oligarchic elite that will pass on its power by inheritance using castling of the model "Putin-Medvedev" new "nobles".

If the financial and raw material elite wins, then this will lead to the fact that this “noble” elite will be swept away, but Russia will also be destroyed. Instead of the power oligarchic elite, representatives will sit, puppet regimes will be at the head of the state, and Russia will territory without sovereignty.

What is sweeter to you, reader?

From the point of view of maintaining a bridgehead, on the basis of which, after some time, it will be possible to change the situation and return Russia to the period of the 40s. XX century, when the position implied responsibility, Putin’s force is preferable, the second option is crap, there is already a foreign, Western occupation.

First Vice-President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems Konstantin Sivkov.

Putin's system of power is increasingly characterized as a monolithic pyramid. In the eyes of society, Putin actually knows how to present himself as an irreplaceable statist leader (in the eyes of the West, a “tsar”) who single-handedly makes the most important decisions. However, it is precisely this understanding of Russian processes that is one of the main mistakes that does not allow us to better understand the origins and foundation of this regime.

What is “collective Putin”?

“Russian power is far from being a strictly vertical structure, which is controlled by one person. The vertical of power is nothing more than a propaganda cliche. Russian power is a conglomerate of clans and groups that compete with each other for resources. Putin’s role in this system does not change - it is the role of an arbiter and moderator. True, an influential arbiter, whose word, at least in conflict situations, remains decisive.

Since 2000, due to various influencing factors, a style of political decision-making has emerged that increasingly resembles the Soviet Politburo. The creation of state corporations in politics and economics had a great influence in the transition to this model. The specificity lies primarily in the fact that its members almost never gather for general meetings. Secondly, the formal status of its members does not always correspond to real influence in decision-making.

Power is not an amorphous and faceless substance; it consists of specific people who are primarily subordinate to the interests of certain power clans and groups. I also hope that you understand a simple idea - power has always been like this everywhere! And the authorities in Russia are no exception.

There are many clans in power: regional, ethnic, oligarchic, bandit, security and other smaller ones. Since the late 80s, the liberal clan has become one of the most influential. The goal of this clan is to become part of the world elite. They are for the free movement of capital, for and for them, state borders, the Motherland, the people - these are all forced obstacles. They are much better at dealing with uninspired concepts:

• interest

The word patriotism is not among the above, but people representing the liberal clan are not idiots at all. This group is very closely involved in financial flows and has infiltrated culture and information policy. Owns almost all media, from regional newspapers and websites to central television channels.

It is the control of all these assets and the support of the West and the United States that allows this clan to feel quite confident and push through the decisions they need, despite their unpopularity among the people. They are ready to surrender their country and resources, to sell everything they can, just to carve out for themselves a cozy and honorable place in the world elite. For them, Russia is just a business project.

Another group, let's call it a pro-state or patriotic clan - its goals differ from the goals of the liberal clan. But still, the main goal of any clan is to promote its interests. But the interests of this patriotic clan are, in many respects, synchronous with the desires and interests of the majority of the people, namely an independent, rich, prosperous and strong country. A powerful army and navy, modern science and space, energy, food security - the patriotic clan is interested in Russia becoming one of the global world leaders, as this will allow it to project its interests onto other countries from a position of strength. And your own assets will be under reliable protection.

These people understood and accepted the idea that their lives and the lives of their relatives are inextricably linked with Russia and their personal success depends on the success of the country. The number of people in power who understand and share these goals is slowly but growing. And in general, this is the only evolutionary path for a bloodless change of political course. And changing the current liberal course is a matter for us as a people and as a single country.

Nine women will not be able to give birth to a child in one month, you need to wait all 9 months

For many years trying to understand why Putin does not rotate the elites, but works with those that exist, few people understand the very subject of discussion. Experts already know the president, his biography and the story of his rise to the top of power almost by heart. There has been much less attention paid to Russia's elites, and therefore there is much less understanding of what they are and whether the president has any options influence the elite in a radical way(for example, like Stalin) or these possibilities are very limited.

Society already understands that elites are not just economic interest groups. Elites are the system on which the head of state relies. It is impossible to destroy a support without creating another. There is no other system.

If there is a system, then there is an arbiter. The elite of the 90s entered into an agreement with society, where they listed the responsibilities of society and avoided any obligations towards society.

The system is clans. It is impossible to remove clans, it will destroy the system, because any system consists of clans. Including the Soviet one. Just as the Secretary General could not change the system against the will of the key clans, the President cannot do this. Clans have the resources to undermine the system. Some clans undermine certain types of supports, others undermine other supports. External participation is implied: Thatcher, through Gromyko, made a huge effort to appoint Gorbachev.

Gorbachev succeeded in breaking the system not because he outwitted everyone, but because the Soviet party elite had long wanted this. A large echelon of the anti-Soviet elite has matured with a demand for the scrapping of socialism. She was able to replace the old and decrepit Soviet elite. There is no mature anti-liberal counter-elite in Russia now. Don’t consider the pocket Duma opposition a counter-elite! And therefore Putin does not have the resources to undermine the system. The elite has this resource, but Putin does not, and there is no counter-elite yet.

The media in the hands of the oligarchy of the late 90s is a tool of blackmail. To prevent the system from going wrong, it needed an arbiter. Putin then receives a mandate from the elite to preserve the system, and to fulfill his function requires strengthening the security wing. After which the security forces appeared among the elite, where they had not been included before. Before this, they were servants of the oligarchy and provided power and operational support in the redistribution of property. This entailed the erosion of the special services and became dangerous for the oligarchs themselves: a war of all against all with the participation of the special services is the worst thing that large businessmen can get.

One of the president's tasks since then has been to ensure the stability of the elite. This is an explanation of Putin's personnel policy. At the same time, Putin demands the adequacy of the elite in relation to society. Only in this case can he protect her both from society and from other clans. These are the resources of Putin's arbitration position.

The elite determines the personality of the president in Russia. It was the opinion of the liberal wing of the elite, which was afraid of Ivanov, that became key in the appointment of Medvedev as president. Now, with the impending change of power, the opinion of this wing has not lost its weight. Despite all the blows of fate, liberalism remains the ideology of the administrative and commercial elite. Not at all because they are such villains by nature. They simply strive to the West because it is profitable. There are all the institutions for storing money and there are all the opportunities for their profitable use.

Sun Tzu also said: to force someone to come to you, there is only one way - to make it profitable for him. The Western system of multiplying money is more profitable than the domestic one, if sanctions are removed. And in the absence of a code of honor among the elite, the absence of an innate or acquired as a result of upbringing sense of self-worth and self-sufficiency, the lack of proper education in terms of patriotism and involvement in one’s destiny with the fate of the Motherland, and the presence of a sense of secondary importance, this system works.

A significant part of our elite, especially the nomenclature and business part, is still deeply secondary in relation to the West. And the worst thing is that she seems to be completely fine with it.

Sanctions have not discouraged the elite from moving to the West, but they gave rise to a desire to somehow circumvent the sanctions and quickly cancel or at least weaken part of them. The path to the West for our elite still remains the main one, despite the identification of insurmountable differences with the elites of the West. There is simply no other option comparable in terms of profitability. Deripaska returned to Russia because of sanctions, but as soon as they are lifted, he will rush there again.

All those who are now in the elites positioning themselves as patriots and anti-Westerners will rush along with him. As A. Fursov often says, quoting A. Galich: “This, redhead, is all for the public.”

The reduction in the resource base sowed confusion among the elites and required the arbitrator to remove them from the active clans certain players by force. But Putin does not have such powers from the elite. He has a role in the elite general director, who does not have shares in the company, who cannot expel someone from the Board of Directors.

Therefore, Putin’s current term is characterized not by a mandate from the elites, but by a mandate from the people. Putin received the mandate. And the frightened liberals, anticipating a rotation, began to bring him down. The first attempt to do this was Bolotnaya Square.

Now we are seeing a second attempt in the form of pension reform, tax and fuel increases in combination with the budget rule. The current government, from the minister to the deputy prime minister, is made up of representatives and lobbyists of large financial and industrial groups. Some of them are secondary, because they were set by deputy prime ministers, who themselves are just such representatives. We are talking about the economic bloc of the government, because the so-called security bloc is the prerogative of the president and is appointed by him. This is what the analytical community calls “consensus of elites.”

The structure of the liberal wing is multi-component; it consists not only of government members. Its composition ranges from those in charge of this wing of the bureaucratic group in the presidential administration to the liberal part of the government, the liberal oligarchy, State Duma deputies, both represented by the party in power and part of the parties of the so-called opposition, the liberal intelligentsia and the liberal street. Because there is another, illiberal part of all these institutions, but its resource is much smaller.

All radical or moderate liberal groups in power are in one way or another connected with the impromptu supply of raw materials and taking loans from the West. This is the social base for supporting the raw materials model of the Russian economy. And since this model no longer generates the kind of income that allows it to maintain social consensus, a serious crisis has emerged in Russia of the very basic model of power and property. Although no one challenged this model from within. That is why, despite all the obvious dead end, this model remains the main elite-forming model.

Any attempt to radically change the composition of the elites and the conditions of their functioning will end with what almost always (with the exception of the three Stalinist purges) in Russia any attempts to change the system over the heads of the elite ended - a palace coup and conspiracy (including the fourth Stalinist purge). Instead of perestroika there will be a shootout, which always takes the form of Civil War with the subsequent collapse of the former statehood.

The demand in society for a leftist elite will be realized very slowly. In 2024, the transition period to this change will only begin. It is then that, due to age, those whose Soviet childhood was spent in the dream of capitalism as a system of full counters and general consumer welfare, accompanied by “Melodies and Rhythms of Foreign Pop,” will leave the arena. Those who have no illusions about either socialism or capitalism will begin to penetrate the elites. Those who under capitalism went through petty-bourgeois temptations, rose up, then went bankrupt, became impoverished, lost everything and hate this system with an already mature class instinct.

This new generation is now taking shape, it stomps around at rallies of non-systemic opposition, does not watch TV, does not go to elections, these are those who have been deprived of their pensions, free education and treatment, sustainable work and their own small business, who are exploited like slaves by our retail chains - and these are those who are preparing to enter the forefront of history in 6 years. They will come from different classes, and the children of the current oligarchs who inherited power and property will have to deal with them.

Of course, those who now look like the masters of life dream of maintaining their current position forever and ever. And, of course, none of them will succeed. No matter how they make plans and secure themselves with constitutional reforms, their time is running out, and they will be ousted by new forces. It's inevitable, and they feel it. The current method of reproduction and accumulation (the raw material colony of the West) is almost exhausted, and this is the main reason why new forces will come to power. This will be the middle of the 21st century. Now these forces are ripening in the depths of the people. They are waiting in the wings.

That's why Now we cannot demand that Putin overthrow the elite and its radical transformation only on the basis that the necessary internal and external conditions supposedly developed for this - until, unfortunately, they did not. The current system has not yet exhausted all its resources, and it will continue to struggle for life. The withering away of any formation is a historically long process; it cannot be pushed or pushed. The problem is not to break what is there. The problem is to understand what should replace it. While this concept does not exist, what is will be.

Speaking about the process of rotting feudalism within the framework of an emerging capitalist society, Marx and Engels wrote that the most difficult thing is the process of painful rotting, when elements of the old outgoing system (remnants, as they called it) exist along with elements of the new, emerging one, and neither none of them are strong enough for a historic victory. This is exactly the period the whole world, including Russia, is going through right now. Capitalism in its vestiges is leaving, it is weakening, but it is still strong enough not to leave. The new one is still taking shape and cannot displace the old system.

A new content of society is emerging, which is not yet understood or named. Old and new coexist for some time together, creating special social tension. Old mechanisms are no longer working, new ones are in the process of creation and cannot be used. The intermediate state is the most painful. No amount of running ahead will bring salvation, but on the contrary, it can slow down the ripening of the new.

Those who have not learned anything from the bitter experience of the USSR are ready to repeat their fate. Russia cannot afford this. Premature birth often ends sadly. We must be patient and let the fruit ripen. The other path leads to a rollback to past historical stages that were not completed in time. And it’s good if statehood is still preserved.

Andrey FURSOV - Slavic or Russian elite - What to do?

The difference between the Western and Russian elite. Andrey Fursov.

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